For the Brexiteers, please read my words carefully, there is time.
Sadly we see worldwide the tendency of slipping a bit backwards in light of human international cooperation. We have seen it in the form of the Brexit, Trumps presidency and coming election results in France, Germany and the Netherlands will define the European Union for this century. Globalisation has never transformed our little world faster than any moment in history and it makes us people feel out of control.
Free trade seem to be over a highpoint. For centuries free trade has made the Western world rich, very very rich. The total amount of money (M1+M2) in dollars worldwide is around $75 trillion. Momentarily the Euro represents $11 trillion, the US dollar and Chinese yen both around $10 trillion and the United Kingdom still around £4 trillion.
Yes, the British Empire and free trade has made the English very very rich. Relatively speaking, the English have massive amounts of capital standing to loose and with that opportunity and influence. Standing today, the Pound lost around 12% of value since the Brexit referendum, almost £500 billion can’t be accounted for anymore. To my idea, the market hasn’t yet truly incoperate losses as these in company figures and government forecasts, but I assure you that from a macro economical viewpoint the bill will fall. For the queen’s sake, an Englishmen himself thought the world macro economics.
But still, with lowered projected growth rates, overpopulation, climate change, income and racial inequality at the rise in most parts of the world: we as humans decide it smart to isolate ourselves from each-other. I explained myself about immigration in general and why control of immigration laws over access to the European market irrational is, it’s a contradiction. People will search for better live opportunities anyway, nobody is here to blame; immigration forthcoming from these basic human drives need to be addressed international. Anything else will not work, it will be a bandage on a never ending bleeding wound.
Still, it’s not too late. Happily we can reverse a moment of absent of mind, we all think mistakes. But things need to change and my guess is that the European Union will change and will absolutely help out Britain if they decide to do a Britin, the Pound will be untouched and all will go as normal, even better. Though, for the coming months my expectation is that soon we will see a big drop in the value of the Pound, followed by some recovery. Only this time, domestic markets and the English people start to feel effects of the Brexit in their wallets. The financial market of London will this time start in earnest to move business elsewhere, international food prices in the U.K. are already rising, prices of more and more imported products will go up, house values will drop and the economy in general will decrease in size.
George Soros already speculates Theresa May departure and coming political chaos, also trade agreements in general take years to create and are hard to agree to. The EU is not going to be overly friendly in providing the British with best of both worlds. Also from international perspective, I am not sure how Trump and Xi Jinping look at a divided United Kingdom. Xi was foremost interested in good China-Britain relations because of the indirect influence it could have on European policymaking. This is not the case if article 50 is implemented and Trump is all about his America First. So, the three biggest economical powers in the world are not that interested in England, especially when more divided. Nice starting point for new international trade agreements. Also, a departure of Scotland from the United Kingdom will destabilise the economy even more. God save the queen, shall we say?
The EU absolutely needed a wake up call and I am thankful to the Brexiteers for doing such an excellent job, but don’t go too far. The EU is willing to change policies over immigration and will start in earnest with a border control program, also other policies are open for discussion.
But please, see a Brexit for what it will not give you. Namely: it will not give you the control you seek, or a past to be rediscovered, not will you feel more safe, nor it will be an answer to any of your problems. No, what you will get is less control, less prosperity, less happiness, less opportunity and a lesser United Kingdom. Fortunately, there is still time.